Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses Aggregate and within-coalition results

Clora F, Yu W, Corong E

Abstract: the European Union (EU) recently declared its intention to implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) to address carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns associated with elevated climate ambitions in its Green Deal. Current literature points to uncertainties regarding the CBAM’s effectiveness and compatibility with international trade rules. This study numerically evaluates how alternative EU CBAM designs under various international reactions affect global and regional GHG emissions, outputs and trade flows.

Our modeling results confirm substantial carbon leakages and output reductions in the EU’s emissions-intensive trade-exposed (EITE) sectors when implementing the Green Deal. We find that the design of the CBAM matters: while a“non-discriminatory”CBAM based on the EU’s own scope 1 emission intensities fails to effectively reduce leakages, an‘aggressive’CBAM based on exporters’ cscope 1 & 2 emission intensities can achieve such goal (albeit with potentially high implementation cost). International retaliations by non-EU countries can only partially offset the EU’ s gains from the’aggressivecCBAM, while their cooperation can result in smaller losses to the EU EITE sectors and lower leakages. Finally, the CBAM cannot change within-EU imbalances in the EITE sectors, as several EU members lose EITE outputs consistently in all scenarios with and without retaliations.

欧盟的替代性碳边界调整机制及国际对策：总体和联盟内部结果

Clora F, Yu W, Corong E

摘要：欧盟（EU）最近宣布打算实施碳边境调整机制（CBAM），以解决与 "绿色交易 "中提升气候目标相关的碳泄漏和竞争力问题。目前的文献指出，碳边境调整机制的有效性和与国际贸易规则的兼容性存在不确定性。本研究用数字评估了欧盟在各种国际反应下的碳边境调整机制设计如何影响全球和地区的温室气体排放、产出和贸易流。建模结果证实，在实施 "绿色交易 "时，欧盟的排放密集型贸易暴露（EITE）部门会出现大量的碳泄漏和产出减少。我们发现，CBAM 的设计很重要：基于欧盟自身范围 1 排放强度的 "非歧视性 "CBAM 无法有效减少泄漏，而基于出口商范围 1 和范围 2 排放强度的 "激进 "CBAM 则可以实现这一目标（尽管实施成本可能很高）。非欧盟国家的国际报复只能部分抵消欧盟从 "激进 "的 CBAM 中获得的收益，而它们的合作则可使欧盟经济、技术和创新部门的损失更小，泄漏量更低。最后，《建立信任措施和货币政策》无法改变欧盟内部经济、技术和创新部门的不平衡，因为在有报复和无报复的所有方案中，几个欧盟成员国都会持续损失经济、技术和创新产出。

文章来源：Clora, F., Yu, W., & Corong, E. (2023). Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results. Energy Policy, 174, 113454.