Extreme weather event attribution science and climate change litigation: an essential step in the causal chain?

Marjanac S, Patton L

Abstract: he 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season caused the highest disaster-related losses.ever seen in the United States, with many people asking questions about the causes and liabilities for the impacts of these kinds of events. As climate-related loss and damage mount, there is growing interest in the role of law in dealing with the complex and multi-scalar problem of climate change. This article builds on a shorter piece entitled ‘Acts of God, human influence and litigation’ published by the authors in Nature Geoscience in August 2017. It is an interdisciplinary and cross-jurisdictional analysis of the emerging science of extreme weather event attribution (which analyses the human impact on extreme weather events), and the implications this new science may have for the law, litigation and the scope of the duty of care of a range of actors. We suggest that the science of event attribution may become a driver of litigation, as it shifts understanding of what weather is expected and, relevantly for law, foreseeable. This may have an impact on the duties of government actors as well as private parties. We explain the discipline of event attribution science to lawyers, discuss some technical issues related to the use of this evidence in court and make some suggestions regarding the types of ‘climate change’ cases it may influence. We conclude that the first kind of litigation to emerge is most likely to arise from failures to adapt to, or to prepare for, our changing climate.

极端天气事件归因科学与气候变化诉讼：因果链中的关键一步？

Marjanac S, Patton L

摘要：2017 年北大西洋飓风季造成了美国有史以来最高的灾害相关损失，许多人都在询问此类事件的原因和责任。随着与气候相关的损失和损害的增加，人们越来越关注法律在处理复杂和多维度的气候变化问题中的作用。本文以作者于2017年8月发表在《自然-地球科学》上的一篇题为 "天灾、人类影响与诉讼"的短文为基础。文章对极端天气事件归因（分析人类对极端天气事件的影响）这一新兴科学进行了跨学科和跨司法管辖区的分析，以及这一新科学可能对法律、诉讼和一系列行为者的注意义务范围产生的影响。我们认为，事件归因科学可能会成为诉讼的驱动力，因为它改变了人们对预期天气的理解，以及与法律相关的对可预见天气的理解。这可能会对政府行为者和私人当事方的职责产生影响。我们向律师解释了事件归因科学的学科，讨论了与在法庭上使用该证据有关的一些技术问题，并就其可能影响的 "气候变化 "案件类型提出了一些建议。我们的结论是，出现的第一种诉讼最有可能是由于未能适应或准备应对气候变化而引起的。

文章来源：Marjanac, S., & Patton, L. (2018). Extreme weather event attribution science and climate change litigation: an essential step in the causal chain?. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, 36(3), 265-298.