Impacts of the CBAM on EU trade partners consequences for developing countries

Magacho G, Espagne E, Godin A

Abstract:This article analyses the impact of the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on European Union (EU) trade partners, focusing especially on its potential socio-economic and external consequences for developing and emerging economies (EMDEs). It uses trade data and Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) matrices to investigate the geographically and sectorally uneven distribution of CBAM’s potential impacts. The introduction of the CBAM by the EU is still under discussion. This mechanism, which seeks to reduce the incentives for firms to outsource their carbon emissions and promote a more generalised low-carbon transition, might disproportionally expose some non-EU economies. In absolute terms, Russia, China, Turkey, and Ukraine are the main EU trade partners in CBAM products, and hence the most exposed countries in external and socio-economic dimensions. In relative terms, the degree of exposure of economies that export CBAM products to Europe varies substantially, with many developing economies having more than 2% of their exports and 1% of their production impacted by this measure. East European economies, mainly in the Balkans, as well as Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Cameroon in Africa, are the most exposed as far as the external dimension is concerned. In socio-economic terms, we can also include Morocco and Tajikistan to the group of most exposed economies. In the end, promoting the substitution of highly polluting technologies with green technologies seems notably easier in Europe than in EMDEs. Many jobs, tax revenues, and export revenues will be lost if the CBAM is implemented without taking into account the specificities of the EU’s trading partners. We discuss options to mitigate adverse consequences on EMDEs.

对欧盟贸易伙伴的影响：对发展中国家的后果

Magacho G, Espagne E, Godin A

摘要：本文分析了引入碳边境调整机制（CBAM）对欧盟贸易伙伴的影响，尤其侧重于其对发展中和新兴经济体（EMDEs）潜在的社会经济和外部影响。报告利用贸易数据和多区域投入产出矩阵（MRIO）来研究碳排放调整机制潜在影响在地域和部门上的不均衡分布。欧盟对 CBAM 的引入仍在讨论之中。该机制旨在减少企业将碳排放外包的动机，促进更广泛的低碳转型，可能会对一些非欧盟经济体造成不成比例的影响。从绝对值来看，俄罗斯、中国、土耳其和乌克兰是欧盟在 CBAM 产品方面的主要贸易伙伴，因此也是在外部和社会经济方面受影响最大的国家。相对而言，向欧洲出口化学、生物、材料和机械产品的经济体受影响的程度差别很大，许多发展中经济体受影响的程度超过其出口的 2%和生产的 1%。就外部因素而言，东欧经济体（主要是巴尔干地区）以及非洲的莫桑比克、津巴布韦和喀麦隆受到的影响最大。在社会经济方面，我们还可以把摩洛哥和塔吉克斯坦列入受影响最大的经济体行列。最后，促进用绿色技术替代高污染技术在欧洲似乎比在新兴市场经济国家要容易得多。如果不考虑欧盟贸易伙伴的特殊性而实施 CBAM，许多工作岗位、税收和出口收入都将丧失。我们讨论了减轻对新兴市场经济国家不利影响的方案。

文章来源：Magacho, G., Espagne, E., & Godin, A. (2023). Impacts of the CBAM on EU trade partners: consequences for developing countries. Climate Policy, 1-17.